NATO's eastern flank has seen two rapid-response scrambles in as many days, raising questions over whether the war in Ukraine is once again inching uncomfortably close to Alliance borders — even as Kiev and its allies discuss the mechanics of a possible peace process.
On Thursday, Poland's military said it launched fighter jets to secure its airspace after Russia carried out long-range strikes against Ukraine, close to its border.
According to the country's Operational Command, Polish and allied aircraft were put on alert, air-defence systems were raised to their highest readiness and quick-reaction fighters were dispatched.
Officials later stressed that no breach of Polish airspace occurred. The deployment followed another incident just hours earlier along NATO's southern flank.
In Romania, two German Eurofighter Typhoons stationed at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base scrambled to monitor the skies as Russia launched a massive overnight barrage of drones and missiles, striking Ukraine's Danube-side infrastructure near the Romanian border.
Romania's defence ministry confirmed the jets were launched as a precaution but emphasised that no Russian projectile entered NATO territory.
Ukrainian authorities described the Russian assault as one of the largest aerial attacks of the year.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported dozens of ballistic missiles and drones fired across the country, many of them targeting Odessa and other western regions.
"The Russians carried out this attack as if nothing has changed at all, as if there are no global efforts to stop this war," Zelenskyy said.
"This requires a response. There is still no signal from Moscow that they truly intend to engage in substantive negotiations and end this war."
Ukraine's Air Force, meanwhile, said more than 60 Shahed-style drones were intercepted.
Warsaw's political leadership accused Moscow of deliberately stoking tensions.
Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz warned that Russia was once again "provoking NATO countries", pointing to debris — likely from a Shahed drone — that landed in a field in eastern Poland this week.
He said the incident bore similarities to cases in which Russian drones flew into Lithuania and Romania — both countries members of NATO.
The timing, the Polish defence minister said, coincided with ongoing talks about possible peace arrangements for Ukraine.
Those talks appear to be entering a new phase.
Zelenskyy said this week that Kiev expects the architecture of security guarantees to be finalised within seven to ten days, after which he could meet Russia's Vladimir Putin.
He also floated the possibility of US President Donald Trump joining such a trilateral summit, naming Switzerland, Austria and Türkiye as potential hosts.
The backdrop, however, is a pattern of near-misses that keeps regional nerves on edge.
In November 2022, an explosion in the Polish village of Przewodow — later found to be caused by a Ukrainian air-defence missile — initially raised fears of a Russian strike that could have triggered NATO's collective defence clause.
A year later, Polish commanders said a Russian cruise missile briefly penetrated 40 kilometres into Polish airspace before veering back into Ukraine.
The latest incidents, while not direct violations, reflect the narrowing safety margin as Russian-Ukrainian barrages intensify along NATO borders. Both Poland and Romania share a border with Ukraine.
Military analysts note that the German jet deployment in Romania is part of a newly extended NATO air-policing mission, while Poland continues to host allied rotations, including F-35 deployments later this year.
For now, neither NATO nor Russia appears intent on escalating these brushes into open confrontation.
Trump told Fox News on Tuesday that he hoped Putin was going to "be good" and move forward toward ending the war in Ukraine, but conceded it was possible the Russian president doesn't want to make a deal.
"We're going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks... It's possible that he doesn't want to make a deal," Trump said, adding that Putin faced a "rough situation" if that were not the case.
