An kafa farar tuta mai dauke da rubutun "Babu Abin bautawa da gaskiya sai Allah" a kan ginin ofishin jakadancin Afganistan da ke birnin Moscow.

Ma'aikatan ofishin jakadancin sun fito kan baranda domin kafa alamar "Daular Musulunci ta Afghanistan" - don haka, a ranar Alhamis, 3 ga Yulin 2025, duniya ta shaida wani lokaci mai tarihi.

Rasha ta zama kasa ta farko da ta amince da ikon wata ƙungiya da a baya take dauka a matsayin kungiyar ta'addanci a hukumance.

Matakin da Shugaban Ƙasar Rasha Vladimir Putin ya ɗauka na amincewa da gwamnatin Taliban ya kawo sauyi ba kawai ga dangantakar Rasha da Afganistan ba, har ma da dukkanin tsarin dangantakar kasa da kasa a yankin.

Wannan matakin zai iya haifar da tasirin faruwar abubuwa bi-da-bi waɗanda za su sake fasalin yanayin siyasar tsakiyar Asiya da kuma kalubalantar tsarin Yammacin Turai game da lamarin Afghanistan.

Tafiyar shekara 25

Tarihin dangantakar Rasha da Taliban littafi ne mai ɗauke da shafuka da yawa, cike da sauye-sauye masu tsauri da ba a zata ba ba a yi tsammani ba.

A karshen shekarun 1990, lokacin da Taliban ta fara mulki a Afganistan, Moscow ta dauki matsaya mai tsauri.

Akwai dalili mai kyau game da haka: Taliban sun fito fili suna goyon bayan abokan adawar Moscow a cikin yankin Caucasus, kuma a cikin shekarar 2000 ma sun amince da Chechnya a matsayin kasa mai cin gashin kanta. Haka kuma, sun shelanta yakin jihadi - kan kasar Rasha.

Bayan bala'in da ya faru a ranar 11 ga Satumban 2001, Rasha ta goyi bayan mamayar da Amurka ta yi wa Afghanistan ba tare da ɓata lokaci ba.

A shekarar 2003, Rasha ta sanya kungiyar Taliban a hukumance a cikin jerin kungiyoyin ta'addanci. An zaci Moscow ta raba hanya ke nan da ƙungiyar har abada. Amma harkar siyasar yanki batu ne mai damarmaki.

Yayin da yakin da Amurka ke yi a Afganistan, matsayin Rasha ya fara sauyawa. Taliban sun nuna juriya ta ban mamaki a yakin basasar, kuma tasirinsu ƙaruwa ya yi ba raguwa ba.

A cikin 2013, ƙungiyar ta sami ofishin siyasa a Qatar, kuma Moscow ta fara ƙulla hulɗa da wani "matsakaicin reshenta."

Ci gaban diflomasiyar ya zo ne a cikin 2017 tare da ƙirƙirar shawarwarin Tsarin Moscow a kan Afghanistan.

A karon farko kungiyar Taliban ta zauna a teburin tattaunawa da gwamnatin kasar a Kabul karkashin shiga tsakani na Rasha.

Ya zuwa shekarar 2021, lokacin da Taliban ta fara kai farmakin karshe a babban birnin kasar Afganistan, alakar da ke tsakaninta da Moscow ta riga ta kafu sosai, wanda a ranar 15 ga watan Agusta, lokacin da Taliban suka shiga Kabul ba tare da wani faɗa ba, an samu kwanciyar hankali a ofishin jakadancin Rasha.

Har ma Taliban din suka rungumi ɗaukar nauyin bai wa ofishin jakadancin Rashan kariya.

Dabaru da tsare-tsare

Shawarar amincewa da ’yan Taliban ba wani abu ne na kwatsam ba. Sakamakon tsare-tsare ne na dogon lokaci bisa dalilai da dama.

Wasan dara na yankin Tsakiyar Asiya. Rasha tana kallon Afganistan a matsayin wani muhimmin bangare na burinta a Tsakiyar Asiya. Abubuwan da ke faruwa a wannan ƙasa kai-tsaye suna shafar tsaron ƙawayen Rasha, musamman Tajikistan.

A watan Yuli na wannan shekara, Moscow ta sanar da fara samar da makamai ga Afghanistan a matsayin wani bangare na dabarun yaki da ta'addanci - har yanzu cinikin makamai na daya daga cikin muhimman kayan aikin fannin harkokin wajen Rasha.

Burin tattalin arziki. Duk da madaidaitan alamomi na yanzu - Rasha tana matsayi na goma a cikin abokan ciniki na Afghanistan tare da kudin da yawansu ya kai dala miliyan 414 na kayayyakin da ake shiga da su - akwai yuwuwar bunƙasar hakan.

Kasuwancin kasashen biyu ya riga ya kai dala biliyan 3, wanda aka yi niyya na dala biliyan 3 don shekarar 2025.

A taron tattalin arziki na St. Petersburg a watan Yuni, Rasha ta sanar da buɗe damarmakin aiki ga kwararrun Afganistan, inda take amfani da muhimmin makamin faɗaɗa faɗa a jinta – wato samar da ayyuka ga ‘yan ci rani.

Mayar da hankali kan kasashen Kudancin Duniya. Karkashin matsin lamba daga takunkumin kasa da kasa, Rasha na ƙara karkata zuwa kasashen da ba na yamma ba. Kasuwannin Kudancin Asiya, musamman Indiya da Pakistan, sun zama manyan masu shigo da mai da alkama na Rasha.

A cikin wannan yanayin, Afganistan tana aiki a matsayin muhimmiyar hanyar wucewa ga burin Moscow na nahiyar.

A watan Afrilu, Rasha da Uzbekistan sun sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyoyin kaddamar da layin dogo na Trans-Afghanistan.

Gagarumar gasar neman iko. Rasha ta shiga gasar samun tasiri a Afganistan tare da neman zama wata babbar mai karfin faɗa a ji daga waje a harkokin Afghanistan.

Kasar China na daga cikin na farko da suka fara nuna karimcin diflomasiyya ga kungiyar Taliban: a watan Fabrairun 2024, Shugaba Xi Jinping ya karbi takardar shaidar zama wakilin Taliban a hukumance.

Tun daga wannan lokacin, kamfanonin kasar China sun zama kan gaba a fannin haƙar mai, da tagulla, da kuma lithium. Wadannan nasarorin na iya zaburar da Moscow wajen  ɗaukar ƙarin matakai.

Tururuwar amincewa: Waye na gaba da zai bi sahu?

Amincewar da Rasha ta yi da ƙungiyar ka matuƙar iya sauya kallon da duniya ke yi wa Afghanistan.

Kafin wannan lokacin, ƙasashe da dama sun ƙi yin komai ne don sa ido su ga yadda za a fara karɓar ƙasar, amma matakin Rasha ka iya jawo tururuwar masu amincewa da Afghanistan

Uzbekistan ta daɗe da zama ɗaya daga cikin 'yan tsiraru da take gudanar da hulɗar diflomasiyya da Afghanistan.

Ya bayyana ƙarara cewa a wannan rana da Rasha ta amince da kungiyar Taliban a hukumance, Shugaban Ƙasar Uzbekistan ya yi ganawarsa ta farko da mataimakin firaministan kasar Afganistan Abdul Ghani Baradar a gefen taron ECO.

Baradar, wanda ke wakiltar wani reshen ƙungiyar Taliban da ake kira Kabul, ana ɗaukarsa ɗaya daga cikin manyan masu goyon bayan gina ƙasa.

Kazakhstan ma akwai yuwuwar ta kasance ƙasa ta gaba da za ta ƙulla hulɗa da Afghanistan.

Tuni dai Almaty ta dauki muhimman matakai kan wannan al'amari - a watan Yunin da ya gabata, Kazakhstan ta cire kungiyar Taliban daga jerin kungiyoyin 'yan ta'adda. Jami'an Kazakhstan sun kuma gudanar da wasu manyan ziyarce-ziyarce a Kabul.

Tajikistan, wacce a da ta nuna “halin ko-in-kula" game da lamarin Taliban, mai yiwuwa ta sake yin nazarin salonta sakamakon wannan sabuwar matsaya da Rasha ta ɗauka.

Duk da cewa har yanzu Dushanbe ba ta amince da Taliban ba, amma alamu sun nuna cewa dangantaka ta fara ginuwa tsakaninta da Kabul.

Belarus — Babbar ƙawar Rasha ma da alama za ta bi sahu. Duk da cewa amincewar da Minsk za ta yi ba lallai ya samar da dangantaka mai zurfi tsakaninta da Kabul ba, to za ta goyi bayan fafutukar Moscow ta diflomasiyya.

Ya kamata a mayar da hankali ma kan kasar China. Da wuya Beijing ta aiwatar da matakanta a irin salon Rasha - tuni tana da tata ajandar kan Afganistan a cikin shirin Belt and Road Initiative.

Akwai yiyuwar China za ta mai da hankali sosai kan batun Afganistan a taron kolin kungiyar SCO karo na 25 da aka shirya gudanarwa a karshen watan Agusta zuwa farkon watan Satumba a birnin Tianjin.

Idan China ta amince da kungiyar Taliban a hukumance, hakan na iya haifar da rububin amincewa daga ƙasashe da dama.

Yaƙi da ta’addanci

Wani muhimmin abin da ya sa Rasha ta ƙulla alaka da Taliban shi ne yadda barazanar ta'addanci daga yankin Afganistan ke ci gaba da ruruwa.

Bisa ƙididdigar da Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta yi, bayan da Taliban ta hau karagar mulki, yankin Afganistan ya sake zama “wurin ta’addanci”.

A ranar 4 ga watan Yuli, Shugaban Ƙasar Rasha Vladimir Putin ya kira mayakan Taliban da ke ƙawance da Rasha wajen yaki da ta'addanci. "Gaba ɗaya, dole ne mu ci gaba karbar gaskiyar cewa ƙungiyar Taliban ce ke iko da ƙasar. Kuma ta wannan ma'anar, Taliban ƙawayenmu ne a yaƙi da ta'addanci ba tare da wani sharaɗi ba," in ji Putin.

Barazana mafi haɗari a yanzu ita ce ƙungiyar "ISIS-Khorasan," wadda yawan mutanenta ya kai dubu huɗu zuwa dubu shida. Galibin hare-haren ISIS tana kai su ne kan Taliban, amma hare-haren ka iya shafar wasu ƙasashen ma.

Tuni Rasha ta samu waɗannan bayanan: a watan Satumban 2022, ma'aikatan ofishin jakadancin biyu sun mutu a kusa da ginin ofishin jakadancin Rasha a Kabul, kuma a cikin Maris din 2024, mutum 145 sun mutu a harin da aka kai a Crocus City Hall.

Sabon zamani?

Amincewar da Rasha ta yi wa 'yan Taliban na iya nuna farkon wani sabon matakin hulda da kasashen duniya da Afghanistan.

A gefe ɗaya, amincewa daga irin wannan babbar ƙasa mai faɗa a ji a duniya kamar Rasha zai iya haifar da tasirin kowa ya bi, da kuma haifar da ƙulla alaƙa daga sauran ƙasashe.

A daya hannun kuma, hakan na iya kara tsananta fafatawa tsakanin manyan kasashen duniya da na shiyya-shiyya na bangarori masu tasiri a Afghanistan.

Dagiyar diflomasiyya ta Taliban ta cancanci a ba ta kulawa. Ta hanyar jerin ƙoƙarinta, ƙungiyar ta sami karɓuwa ba daga ƙawancen ruhaniya ko ikon yanki ba, amma daga yanayin muhimmancin duniya.

Wannan yana nuna juyin halitta a cikin tsarin gina kasa da kuma manufofin harkokin waje na Taliban.

Taron Ƙolin Ƙungiyar SCO da za a yi a birnin Tianjin mai yuwuwa ya bude wani sabon babi na huldar jakadanci da Afghanistan.

Duniya na kallon yadda gaskiyar abubuwan da ake gani a zahiri sannu a hankali ke sauya fasalin taswirar diflomasiyya.

Rasha ta yi yunkurinta. Yanzu lokaci ne da za a zura ido a ga yadda za ta kaya da sauran ƙasashen yankin.

Tutar da ke kaɗawa a ofishin jakadancin Afghanistan da ke Moscow ba kawai ƙyalle ba ne.

Wata alama ce ta sabuwar duniya inda sulhu ya fi nuna son kai, kuma abubuwan da ke faruwa a zahiri suka fi hasashen ƙasashen duniya.