Di recent trade deal wey happen between China and US, if e mean say di American way don change, na di end of one journey wey many people don see as no make sense.
Di Trump government way start di mata, from di time dem dey target countries wey get trade deficit, to di time dem dey punish people wey fight back, e no too follow di aim wey dem talk. Sometimes, e even be like say di way dem dey do dey help Beijing pass di people wey be dem strong allies.
Di big reduction for tariff wey dem do now, no be because China gree give dem wetin dem want, but na because di wahala don too much for di US people. E show say di US no fit bear di economic pain wey dem dey try use tariff take fight China. Di irony be say, di same tariff wey dem wan use to stop di dependence on China, na e still dey show how dem dey depend on China.
China, wey be di second biggest economy for di world after US, no even shake for all di trade wahala. E even be like say di whole thing don make dem strong pass before for di global level.
Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa, one geopolitical strategist wey dey Hong Kong, talk say di main thing for di whole mata na di way China dey show power, and e fit even pass di economic gain wey dem dey find.
China no dey just talk anyhow when dem dey reject US tariff wahala. Dem believe say if you gree for bully, di bully go continue. As Beijing talk, "if you kneel down, di bully go just dey increase." Dem use di example of how US pressure Japan before, like di Plaza Accord, wey many Japanese people believe say e affect dia economy later.
China don dey grow di kain economic independence wey make dem no too depend on US market again. Di big domestic demand and di partnership wey dem dey build with other countries don give dem strong backup. Di wahala wey US dey try bring don even make China dey innovate and depend on demself more.
But no be say di trade wahala no touch China at all. Di export wey dem dey send go US reduce for some time, and some industries for China dey try find other ways to do dia business. Dem don dey adjust and re-strategise because of di pressure.
Even though China dey strong, di economic connection between di two countries still dey. To completely separate di two economies go hard and e go cost both sides plenty money. Di global economic slowdown wey di trade wahala cause still affect China small, but dem dey try boost dia domestic demand and find new trade partners.
For April, di trade figures show say even with di US tariff wahala, China export still dey grow because dem dey trade well with places like ASEAN and European Union. Di idea say tariff go make China gree for US demand no follow, because China dey show say dem strong and dem dey grow dia global influence.
Di US government dey use tariff as strategy, but China no just siddon look. Dem don dey prepare for di wahala since, and dem dey plan well for di long run. For April, China talk say dem go align dia domestic economy with di international trade wahala and dem dey ready for any challenge.
Di US strategy don show say e get limit. Di tariff reduction wey dem do because of di fear of empty shelves, low container traffic, and small business wahala, show say di US economy no fit handle di trade disruption with China. Di dependence wey US get on China na wetin dey make di whole decoupling idea hard and painful.
Di US dey try show power, but di way dem dey do fit make dem lose dia allies. Di inaction of other big players like EU and India dey make di US-China matter look like na only dem two dey di game. E fit even make am hard for US to gather people wey go join dem fight China for trade or other issues.
At di end, di US tariff strategy no achieve di big aim wey dem get to make China gree for dem demand. Instead, e don show how di two countries dey depend on each other. Di tariff reduction na sign say di US don realise dia own weakness and dem fit dey look for better way to handle di matter.
Di only way forward na for US to dey talk true and negotiate well with China. Dem need to understand say di global economy dey connected and dem fit benefit if dem work together. Na only through respect and better understanding dem fit build stable and better relationship wey go help everybody.
