Washington, DC — Di Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement na im dey stand gidigba on power — power of personality, loyalty, and slogans. But as war dey stretch across di Middle East, di unity wey dem get before don dey shake.
If US President Donald Trump decide to use American firepower for Israel mata against Iran, e fit scatter di ideological balance wey dey hin coalition — wey don already dey show for angry cable show tok-tok and di clash wey dey happen for Congress statements.
Experts dey warn say di risk don dey front and center now.
"Di split serious," na wetin Paul M. Collins, Jr., wey be professor of legal studies and political science for University of Massachusetts Amherst tok give TRT World.
"Even though I no believe say e go scatter Trump coalition before di mid-term elections next year."
Di mata na geopolitical, but di wahala dey ideological. Wetin start as tok about Israel unilateral strike on Iran civilians and nuclear sites — wey Tel Aviv dey suspect say dem dey use for uranium enrichment — don dey risk involve Washington.
Trump foreign policy dey mix strong contrast for hin message: one day e go dey shout against "stupid endless wars," di next day e go dey threaten hin enemies. But hin base — wey before dey always dey in sync — no dey march as one again.
For one side of di debate, you go see people like Senator Lindsey Graham, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, and right-wing media people like Mark Levin and Sean Hannity. Dem dey see Israel campaign as historic chance to hit Iran nuclear infrastructure and fit even topple di government for Tehran.
For di other side, na di non-interventionist core of Trumpism, wey people like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Matt Gaetz, and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene dey represent. Dem dey argue say even indirect US involvement go betray di promise wey bring Trump to power: no more foreign wars.
"Iran na one of di oldest civilisations for di world, okay, with 92 million people. Dis no be something wey you go just play with. You gatz think am well, and di American people gatz dey onboard. You no fit just dump dis kind thing for dem head," Bannon tok reporters for Washington on Wednesday.
And Trump? E dey middle of di wahala.
"Trump dey believe say Iran dey very close to become nuclear power," Collins tok. "I think na wetin dey push am to take more hawkish approach for di Middle East."
But as di tok dey hot, di backlash dey increase too.
"Some Congress members don already dey try limit Trump power to enter di conflict without Congress approval," Collins tok.
Thomas Massie, R-Kentucky, and Ro Khanna, D-California, don introduce resolution to block any US involvement for attack on Iran without Congress approval. "Dis no be our war," Massie write for X. "Even if e be, Congress gatz decide di mata according to our Constitution."
Collins add say, "You go see di anti-war coalition voice dey louder if US involve more."
Di tension no be just theory.
Inside Trump cabinet, hin Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, recently testify say no be true say US intelligence show Iran dey produce nuclear bomb.
Di president vex. "I no care wetin she tok," Trump snap for reporters when dem ask am about her comments. "I think dem dey very close to get weapon."
Di split don wide open.
David Levine, wey be historian for UC Law San Francisco and dey watch US foreign policy well, tok give TRT World say, "If Trump commit US to attack Iran nuclear sites, di rift for hin MAGA base fit open wider."
E see Trump posture as classic brinkmanship: di way e dey increase threat no be necessarily to attack, but to pressure Tehran to come back for negotiation table.
"Dis fit also be Trump way to show say US fit take extreme action, so di threat go make Iran gree negotiate," Levine add.
Tehran dey known for di militias wey dem get for di region, missile systems, and di history of asymmetric retaliation. "Iran fit try attack US assets for places near Persian Gulf," Levine tok. "But I no sabi how many missiles dem still get after dem don send plenty go Israel."
Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance dey try balance di two sides for di American right.
For one careful post wey e put for social media, Vance tok say Trump "fit decide say e need take further action to stop Iranian enrichment" but e warn against "foreign wahala after di last 25 years of mumu foreign policy."
But even Vance balanced approach don dey shake small.
Trump comment on Wednesday — "I fit do am, I fit no do am" — carry di usual style of strategic ambiguity. And na dis one dey quietly deepen di divide.
According to US media reports, Netanyahu briefing for recent weeks don make Trump instincts strong. But di ghost of Iraq — and di risk of political wahala — still dey haunt di West Wing.
New Economist/YouGov poll show say 53 percent of Trump voters no support make US join Israel strikes, wey dey show say MAGA people prefer make dem no involve.
Di same feeling dey reflect for di general public. One recent survey by Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Ipsos show say 8 out of 10 Americans prefer diplomacy instead of military action to stop Iran nuclear programme.
Di polls dey show say more Republican lawmakers and Trump allies dey warn against any military move without Congress, wey dey make di rift dey more obvious.
And even as di voices wey dey call for caution dey small, analysts dey tok say unless Iran respond with big wahala, Trump approval ratings no go change much.
"If Iran no respond with big wahala, e no go affect Trump standing for US. E no dey popular now according to polls; I no think say action against Iran go change di numbers much," Levine conclude.
