Milorad Dodik of Republika Srpska has recently taken steps hinting at a secessionist agenda, threatening the unity of Bosnia Herzegovina. His actions echo the divisive rhetoric of the 1990s, a period marked by the genocide committed against Muslim Bosniaks, for which some Serb officials were convicted.

The international community has widely condemned the actions of Dodik, and the European Union has sent an additional contingent of peacekeeping forces to the country. 

Last week, the Republika Srpska, which is the Serb-majority entity of Bosnia Herzegovina, passed laws that essentially ban the country’s state-level security and judicial authorities from operating in the autonomous region, which covers nearly half of the Balkan state.

This measure of the Republika Srpska was mainly orchestrated by its President Milorad Dodik after a Bosnia Herzegovina court last month convicted him for undermining a 1995 peace agreement that keeps the ethnically divided country together. 

The court ordered that he be sent to prison for one year and banned him from politics for six years for defying the decisions of EU’s High Representative for Bosnia, Christian Schmidt, who is responsible for implementing the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement.

After Republika Srpska barred Bosnian state-level operations in the Serb entity, Bosnian prosecutors issued arrest warrants for the top three officials of the Serb entity, including Dodik, on March 12. 

Soon after, the Bosnian Serbs passed a constitution, which included articles violating Bosnia Herzegovina’s constitution. 

“The tensions we are witnessing today in Bosnia and Herzegovina are the result of a long-term process,” says Ivan Ejub Kostic, Research Fellow at the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory, University of Belgrade. 

Dodik “has been working for over a decade and a half to undermine the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” he says. 

While the Bosnian court issued arrest warrants for him and other secessionist leaders, Kostic fears that the verdict “comes too late”, and he doubts that Bosnia and Herzegovina’s authorities are “capable of enforcing the ruling if it becomes final.” 

What becomes of Dodik? 

Across Bosnia and Herzegovina, “there is a justified concern” that Dodik should be brought to justice because “he has largely succeeded in his goal of creating a ‘state within a state’,” Kostic tells TRT World. 

Dodik and his secessionist allies have sternly rejected Bosnian arrest warrants, declaring that they will not comply with either the court ruling or arrest warrants. Dodik's lawyer, Anto Nobilo, said that Dodik does not recognise the Bosnian court or state prosecutor's office, which experts say is clearly a secessionist behaviour. 

“Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina sustain themselves through crises, as they continuously use them to question the functionality of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For this reason, it is of crucial importance that state institutions demonstrate their ability to implement court rulings and legal directives,” says Kostic. 

This is necessary for “the long-term viability” of Bosnia Herzegovina, he adds. 

Dodik’s actions also led to a backlash from Washington where three members of the US Senate — Chuck Grassley, Jeanne Shaheen and Jim Risch — called Secretary of State Marco Rubio to prevent further deterioration in Bosnia.

"We are deeply concerned about the recent actions of Milorad Dodik, the leader of the Republika Srpska entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina," they said in a letter addressed to the top US diplomat. 

"For years, he has engaged in secessionist activity, challenging Bosnia and Herzegovina's state institutions, undermining the constitution and threatening the territorial integrity of the country," the letter added. 

In response to increasing concerns in the Balkan state, Rubio reiterated the long-held American policy of keeping Bosnia as one country, saying that “whatever differences may exist internally there, this cannot lead to a country breaking apart, and it cannot lead to another conflict."

In 2023, the US leveled sanctions on Dodik and his secessionist political allies. The US was the main force behind the current Bosnia Herzegovina state structure built as a result of the Dayton Accords. 

More peacekeeping forces

Rising tension prompted the EU to send additional peacekeeping forces to the Balkan state as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pledged the alliance’s “unwavering” support to protect the country’s territorial integrity against any secessionist military acts.  

But Kostic is not sure all these promises will be good enough to prevent another aggression against Bosniaks. 

“If we consider the 1990s and the aggression against Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is clear that the presence of international armed forces does not necessarily guarantee the security of the population,” he says. 

“The genocide in Srebrenica occurred in the presence of the Dutch battalion of UNPROFOR, which was supposed to ensure the safety of the people. Despite this historical fact, it is still essential that the international community today sends a message that it will be significantly more decisive in assisting with the potential defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina.” 

In addition to deploying more troops to Bosnia, the international community needs “to reassess” its strategy evaluating the roles of the last two High Representatives and increase its capacity to contribute to the stability and prosperity of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” he says.