Abhishek G BhayaEuropean plans to send troops to Ukraine to enforce a future peace settlement with Russia are a non-starter, and the only viable path to a successful post-war peacekeeping operation is involving troops from Global South nations, including BRICS countries, former Kyrgyz Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbaev told TRT World in an exclusive interview.
With US President Donald Trump halting military aid to Ukraine, Otorbaev says efforts must now focus on ending the war through a peacekeeping initiative led by non-NATO states.
“This war cannot continue indefinitely. We must stop it. The world must prioritise ending the killing on the front lines—that is the number one goal,” he said via a Zoom video call from Kyrgyz capital Bishkek.
Reports suggest that, alarmed by the US policy shift on Ukraine and the resulting trans-Atlantic divide, a group of European countries—led by France and Britain—is working on a plan to deploy troops in Ukraine for post-war security.
Otorbaev, however, dismissed such proposals as unfeasible, citing Russia’s firm opposition to any NATO-led intervention. “Russia sees NATO countries as part of the war and completely rejects that approach,” he explained.
Instead, Otorbaev envisions a key role for China, India, Brazil, and other nations from the Middle East, Asia, and Africa in leading peacekeeping efforts.
“Everyone must now focus on who will oversee peacekeeping missions in Ukraine. In my view, only Global South countries should take on this role. To my knowledge, the US originally proposed this idea," he said.
“Even BRICS countries, as the most powerful and influential among the Global South, could play a critical role. If this scenario materialises, it could bring significant positive developments in relations between the Global South and European nations,” noted the veteran politician with deep insights into Eurasian geopolitics.
Security guarantees are an issue that Ankara closely follows, says Türkiye's foreign minister.
Central Asia maintains a delicate balance
Offering a regional perspective, Otorbaev noted that Central Asia, long accustomed to balancing ties with global powers like Russia, China, and the West, now faces new challenges as widening rifts between the US and Europe put its strategic position to the test.
“We are a peaceful part of the world, and I believe we will maintain this status,” he said, highlighting the importance of maintaining peaceful relations with all global powers. “Our format of 5+1, where the five Central Asian countries cooperate with one influential global power at a time, is a way to ensure peaceful development and cooperation.”
He insisted that peace in Ukraine is in the interest of the larger Eurasian region, including the landlocked Central Asian countries such as Kyrgyzstan. “My conclusion is that Central Asia needs another 50 years of peaceful development to fully emerge as a successful region,” Otorbaev said.
“We should not jump from one coalition to another. Our focus should be on development, not on choosing sides,” he added as divisions between the US and its European allies deepen.
Meanwhile, Trump is pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept a swift ceasefire with Moscow without offering any US security guarantees. Their public clash at the White House on February 28 sent geopolitical shockwaves.
Diplomatic efforts to advance Trump’s peace plan have intensified in recent days, with Zelenskyy arriving in Saudi Arabia on Monday ahead of talks between US and Ukrainian officials in the Saudi city of Jeddah on Tuesday. This follows earlier US-Russia discussions in the Saudi capital Riyadh last month.
These negotiations, held under Trump’s direction, exclude Europe, heightening concerns over its role in Ukraine’s future. Meanwhile, with US military aid halted and NATO’s future uncertain, European nations are scrambling to reassess their security strategies.
TRT Global - As the US sidelines its European allies in talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, Europe faces a stark reality—its costly support for the conflict has backfired, straining its economy and weakening its own defence.
Europe's mounting challenges
Europe's response to the changing geopolitical landscape has been one of alarm. Otorbaev remarked that European leaders were left "in shock" when Trump engaged directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential resolutions to the Ukraine conflict without significant European input.
"Europe definitely, of course, is unhappy with this development. They wanted to have a seat at the negotiation table, as they say that this event (Russia-Ukraine war) happened in the middle of Europe," he pointed out.
Yet, despite its insistence on being a stakeholder in the resolution process, Europe faces profound internal challenges that hinder its ability to assert independence from Washington. Economic stagnation, demographic decline, and political fragmentation all weigh heavily on the continent’s ability to execute ambitious military plans.
"Europe claims that they must build a European army, that they have to spend a lot of money to produce weapons and train military contingents. I don’t really believe that it will happen because of the economic situation in Europe," Otorbaev observed.
The former Kyrgyz leader also highlighted deepening public discontent across the European Union. "The recent elections in many countries clearly show that people are unhappy with the current development of events.
Europe should be more willing to negotiate and compromise," he advised, adding that while Europe must be at the negotiation table, it needs "a different approach, not as aggressive to Russia."
The European Union has historically relied heavily on the US for defence, but that era might now be coming to an end.
Can Europe reduce its dependence on the US?
One of the most contentious debates within Europe has been whether the continent can reduce its reliance on the United States, both militarily and economically. French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly called for greater European military autonomy, even suggesting that France could extend its nuclear umbrella to European allies.
However, Otorbaev dismissed such proposals as unrealistic. "This nuclear rhetoric from France is not justified by the numbers. France, as well as the UK, have something like 200 nuclear warheads. The US and Russia have more than 5,000 each. If France wanted to achieve equality in that area, it would have to produce 20 times more nuclear weapons. It is simply not possible," he argued.
Otorbaev also cast doubt on Europe’s ability to significantly increase its military spending. The EU Commission last week proposed the ‘REARM Europe’ plan to mobilise around 800 billion euros (around $870 billion) over the next four years.
"Currently, European Union defence budgets are about 1.8 percent of GDP on average. Now they’re talking about raising it to 3.3 percent. But where will they get the money? Their budgets are already stretched.”
“Teachers in many European countries are protesting because of low salaries. If Europe spends another 800 billion euros on arms and defence, from where will they take this money?" he questioned.
As Trump’s administration signals its intent to cut NATO funding while demanding increased European contributions, the future of the trans-Atlantic alliance appears uncertain.
Otorbaev believes that Europe will struggle to fill the financial void left by the US. "Already, European budgets are stressed. Increasing military spending will come at the expense of social programs and economic investment. It is not realistic," he said.
Instead, he suggests that Europe must focus on rebuilding trust and prioritising diplomatic negotiations. "Europe doesn’t trust Russia, and Russia doesn’t trust Europe. But the only way to build trust is to speak. Right now, both parties are not talking, and that doesn’t bring predictability to future relationships. All wars were stopped by diplomatic negotiations, and this war should be stopped the same way," he said.
Much like Mikhail Gorbachev's ‘reforms’ hastened the Soviet collapse, analysts say US President Donald Trump’s radical policies—on trade, foreign aid, and global alliances—may escalate America’s downward slide.
A ‘global reformatting’ in motion
The Kyrgyz leader believes that the ongoing Ukraine crisis is part of a broader "global reformatting" that has seen the West retreat while the Global South gains influence. "Economic power, in terms of GDP, military power, hard power, soft power—things are changing," he said.
"What’s happening during this episode, as well as around the world, is a global reformatting, and the consequences of this event will be seen for many, many years to come," explained Otorbaev.
This shift, he argues, is exemplified by the United States' shifting priorities, which have left European nations struggling to maintain relevance in the conflict.
"The behavior of the United States’ new administration indicates that the world is no longer as it was 70 years ago, 30 years ago, or even 10 years ago. We have to look at our world with a different focus to rightly understand what happened," he said.
As the US-Europe alliance continues to fray, Otorbaev suggested that the biggest beneficiaries of these shifts are countries in the Global South, particularly China and India. He pointed to the remarkable economic growth of these nations, which he attributed to their increasing competitiveness in various sectors.
“The name of the game in the modern world is competitiveness,” Otorbaev asserted. “If you are competitive, you will succeed. The Global South is growing rapidly because countries like China and India have become much more competitive.”
He highlighted a recent study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), which found that China leads in 57 out of 64 critical technologies such as defence, space, energy, environment, AI, biotechnology, robotics and quantum technology – a stark contrast to the West’s shrinking lead in high-tech industries.
“The technological race will soon be in the hands of developing countries,” Otorbaev declared. “But there must be a balance of cooperation and competition. These two elements are key to future success.”
He acknowledged that while technological competition could spark tensions, cooperation between the Global South and the West would be essential to maintaining global stability.
