Tuncay ŞahinAs Germany awaits the swearing-in of Friedrich Merz as its new chancellor, his recent statements suggest a recalibration in Berlin’s approach toward Türkiye — a shift that emphasises strategic cooperation at a time when many officials in Europe are rethinking the security alliance with the US.
Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is set to take office on May 6, after his party won the February election.
While a question mark hangs over Türkiye's EU membership, Merz has hinted at a renewed focus on shared interests in security, migration, and economic partnership.
“Incoming Chancellor Merz has the potential to foster improved relations between Türkiye and Germany,” says Suay Nilhan Acıkalin, a Turkish foreign policy and political leadership expert, pointing to his campaign promises to strengthen bilateral ties.
Merz has acknowledged Türkiye's pivotal geographic position, straddling the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, and its role as a critical NATO ally. The German leader views Türkiye as indispensable to European defence architecture, particularly at a time of rising global uncertainty.
Acikalin says Merz’s emphasis on reducing both American and Russian influence over German policy reflects a broader desire for strategic autonomy, one that could create new space for bilateral cooperation with Ankara.
Though Türkiye's relations with Germany have seen ups and downs in recent years, the two countries are closely linked. Germany is the single largest market for Turkish exports, more than 3 million Turks work in Germany and millions of German tourists vacation at Turkish beaches every year.
Experts warn that a failure to finalise the agreement could have a fallout on bilateral ties with Germany and the security of Europe.
While stressing the importance of maintaining NATO unity, Merz has also called for enhanced dialogue with Türkiye to address common foreign policy challenges.
“As the US expects NATO allies to take more responsibility for their own security, European NATO allies should engage in a strategic dialogue with Türkiye on how we can better pursue our common foreign policy interests,” Merz told Anadolu Agency during an interview ahead of Germany's elections on February 23.
His approach suggests that Germany may seek a more pragmatic partnership, balancing cooperation with managed tensions, particularly as the EU grapples with broader questions about its own strategic autonomy, experts say.
A partner, not just a buffer: Reframing migration cooperation
Migration remains a central pillar of Merz’s Türkiye policy. He has signalled support for strengthening the 2016 EU-Türkiye agreement, which has been credited with reducing irregular migration into Europe.
Commending Türkiye's efforts in hosting millions of Syrian refugees, Merz underlined the importance of sustained collaboration to ensure regional stability and facilitate voluntary, safe returns.
Experts say that Türkiye’s role must be seen through a strategic lens rather than a transactional one.
“There’s a risk in treating Türkiye merely as a buffer zone,” said international relations expert Professor Aylin Unver Noi, who emphasised the importance of redefining Türkiye not just as a gatekeeper but as a long-term strategic partner.
Germany, under Merz, is expected to maintain strong political and financial backing for Türkiye’s refugee-hosting role — a stance likely to win quiet approval across the EU, even if broader political ties remain strained.
Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) aims to position Türkiye as a leader in sixth-generation fighter technology by 2030, signalling not only a national achievement but a strategic shift in global defence alignment.
Beyond trade
Türkiye remains one of Germany’s largest non-EU trading partners, and that relationship may deepen under Merz’s leadership.
His coalition’s support for rule-based trade, adherence to climate goals, and preference for EU-centred agreements contrasts with the protectionist turn seen in US policy under President Donald Trump, experts say.
According to Acikalin, the impact of global protectionism is more likely to strain transatlantic and German economic relations than have much bearing on the Turkish-German dynamic.
She sees strong potential for diversified sectoral cooperation, especially if new areas like defence are included alongside traditional trade.
“Expanding cooperation into areas like defence could strengthen economic ties and open up new opportunities beyond traditional sectors,” she noted.
Noi echoed this by highlighting Türkiye’s strategic position in global supply chains and the importance of its alignment with the EU’s Green Deal.
But she also cautioned that political compulsions have historically shaped the pace of Customs Union modernisation and may continue to do so. The Customs Union is a trade agreement between Türkiye and Germany. Ankara has been seeking to update the agreement.
Regional conflicts: Can Berlin and Ankara find common ground
Türkiye and Germany also have the potential to collaborate more deeply on regional crises — from the Russia-Ukraine war to developments in Syria and the South Caucasus. However, diverging interests and political ideologies have sometimes limited such cooperation.
Acikalin emphasised Ukraine as the most promising area for joint action but voiced doubts about how far Germany’s new coalition will extend foreign policy commitments.
“They have different positions and approaches on regional crises,” she said, while describing past policies like Annalena Baerbock’s foreign policy as impractical for conflict zones.
Noi, meanwhile, pointed to Germany’s past mediation efforts — including its key role in de-escalating tensions between Türkiye and Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean — as a blueprint for future cooperation.
Eurofighter deal
Türkiye is seeking to acquire 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets—advanced multirole aircraft co-produced by the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain. As one of the four partner nations in the program, Germany’s approval is essential for the deal to go through.
The fate of the Eurofighter deal now hinges on the incoming German government, expected to be formed through a coalition between Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats and the centre-left Social Democrats, possibly by May 6.
Analysts suggest Merz’s approach to the Eurofighter decision could be a defining moment in Germany’s relations with Türkiye—either paving the way for renewed strategic cooperation or deepening existing suspicions.
For Ankara, the deal carries symbolic weight beyond the purchase of military aircraft. It represents a test of mutual confidence and a measure of whether Europe is ready to regard Türkiye not just as a NATO member, but as a serious contributor to the continent’s security framework.
Merz, widely expected to become chancellor, has spoken in favour of strengthening ties with Türkiye and recognises its key role in maintaining regional stability.
