Coletta WanjohiSouth Sudan's turbulent history looms over its present, reflected in the undercurrent of scepticism sparked by President Salva Kiir's assurance to citizens that he won't allow the country to slip back into conflict.
"Fellow citizens, you have been following the unfolding events in Upper Nile State, Nasir County…I am appealing to you to remain calm," Kiir said in his March 7 address to the nation.
"I have said time and again that our country will not go back to war. Let no one take the law into their hands."
The President's call to solidarity comes amid growing mistrust between him and his estranged deputy, First Vice President Dr Riek Machar.
As political and ideological divisions threaten to consume South Sudan, the situation echoes the 2013–2018 crisis, when a rift between the two leaders exacerbated ethnic tensions and plunged the nation into turmoil.
Crackdown on dissent
Some recent high-profile arrests, including that of a deputy military chief and two ministers allied to Machar, have accentuated the rift.
The South Sudanese government has reaffirmed its commitment to end the recruitment and the use of child soldiers.
Government spokesperson Michael Makuei accused the officials of being "in conflict with the law".
At the March 12 extraordinary summit of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), leaders of the eight-nation trade bloc asked for the immediate release of the detained officials "unless credible evidence warrants legal proceedings conducted transparently and by due process".
IGAD said it was particularly concerned about the "growing lack of trust and confidence among the parties to the agreement on transitional government’’.
A transitional administration currently administers South Sudan, based on the Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity (RTGoNU) signed by the warring factions in 2018.
"The idea was to chart the path for a smooth transition, to be concluded with elections," Alain Nyamitwe, a former permanent representative of Burundi to the African Union, tells TRT Afrika.
The transitional government led by President Kiir and First Vice President Machar, who leads the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), took over in 2020 after IGAD brokered a peace deal to end the war.
The United Nations estimates that over 400,000 people were killed and millions displaced during the South Sudanese civil war.
Cauldron of uncertainty
Beyond the human toll of the conflict, development has been the biggest casualty.
"Development isn't possible under the current circumstances," Nyamitwe tells TRT Afrika, pointing out that South Sudan can't afford a return to unmitigated chaos.
The internal conflict traces its origins to December 2013, just over two years after the country's independence. The civil war grounded the fledgling nation's economy even before it could take wing.
The displacement of millions fleeing their homes to escape being attacked meant they couldn't till their land, set up businesses, or make any long-term investments.
The seventh edition of the World Bank's South Sudan Economic Monitor – titled "A Pathway to Overcome the Crisis" – illustrates how badly the country has been scorched by conflict.
The report, released earlier this month, notes that "South Sudan’s economy has declined for five consecutive years" and warns that it is projected to contract by 30% in 2024-25.
"Contraction is primarily due to the disruption of oil production, which has led to a significant decline in export revenues, estimated at US $7 million per day. This has strained public finances, contributing to salary arrears and reduced spending on essential services like health and education," the World Bank explains.
Nearly 80% of South Sudan's population is in the vice-like grip of hyperinflation and food insecurity.
Experts blame weak governance, poor management of oil revenues, and ineffective fiscal policies for the state of affairs.
An unstable financial sector has made it harder for South Sudan to access credit that might be invested in developing the country.
While there is no easy way out of the mess, the World Bank believes all is not lost.
"South Sudan can unleash the potential of its private sector and pave the way for recovery and prosperity," says Charles Undeland, World Bank's country manager for South Sudan.
Peace first and foremost
UN data shows that South Sudan has approximately 9.3 million people who require humanitarian aid and support for other needs.
Most of these citizens are those affected by previous bouts of internal feuding and climate change, among other factors.
A large number of displaced people who fled to neighbouring Sudan for safety are being forced to return as internal conflict in that country since April 2023 has uprooted millions.
"You can't afford a shattered Sudan and South Sudan side by side. The consequences of that are huge," Nyamitwe explains.
The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) says that as of January 2025, over one million people fleeing Sudan had sought refuge in South Sudan. This number continues to grow.
Another civil war would be highly challenging for the displaced population and those who have yet to resettle since the previous conflict.
Conflict resolution experts can't stress enough that the suffering people of South Sudan deserve the opportunity to hold elections and choose their leaders, which could significantly help alleviate tensions arising from the absence of a proper governance system.
"Logically, the current situation is a result of multiple postponements of elections," Nyamitwe tells TRT Afrika.
In September 2024, the South Sudan transitional government extended its mandate to remain in charge again until February 2027.
It postponed the election timetable to December 2026, instead of the initially planned December 2024. This marked the second instance of election postponement since the transitional government assumed office in 2020.
"It's a regrettable development given the deep frustration and fatigue felt by the South Sudanese people at the apparent political paralysis and inaction of their leaders to implement the peace agreement and deliver the long-awaited democratic transition," says Nicholas Haysom, head of the UN Mission in South Sudan.
With tensions escalating between the principal signatories of the transitional government, experts say a sustainable solution based on dialogue is vital.
As Nyamitwe says, "the transition period must end at some point".
