Di war wey dey happen for Ukraine fit dey near one big turning point. After dem do high-level meeting for Saudi Arabia, Kiev don gree to di 30-day ceasefire wey Washington propose. As dem gree so, di US don start to dey give military support and dey share intelligence again, wey don change di way di war dey go. But di matter still dey hang for Russia head to respond, and people dey fear say e fit just make di war front line dey static instead of to end di war.
As all dis things dey happen, one big question dey: wetin be di role wey Türkiye go play to make sure peace go last for di long run?
Unlike di Western countries wey dey stand gidigba against Moscow, Türkiye dey act like person wey dey balance di matter, dey try to maintain good relationship with both Russia and di West.
Dis kind strategy no be today e start—Ankara don dey use di way dem take dey for di middle of di world to maintain peace for di region and still show say dem get di power to do wetin dem want. But now wey peace talk don dey serious, Türkiye fit use di influence wey dem get for diplomacy and military to make sure di peace go last well well.
Di mediator between East and West
Since di war start, Türkiye don dey waka for tightrope for diplomacy. As NATO member, dem don condemn wetin Russia dey do and dem don talk say Ukraine get di right to keep di land wey dey under dem.
At di same time, dem no gree put sanctions for Russia head, dem still dey do trade and security talk with Russia. Dis kind way don make Türkiye fit arrange di early ceasefire talk wey happen for Istanbul for 2022 and dem still help broker di Black Sea grain agreement wey help reduce di food wahala for di world.
Even as di tension dey rise, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan no stop to dey talk say make dem do dialogue. Di Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan sef don talk say Ankara ready to host more peace talk, wey show say Türkiye dey serious to make sure di peace go dey fair and last long.
Dis one dey follow di way Ankara dey do dem foreign policy—dem no want make di matter escalate reach di level wey go scatter di Black Sea region, because if e happen, e go be direct security wahala for Türkiye.
Geopolitical motivations
Even though peace na di main reason why Türkiye dey try mediate, dem still get di one wey concern dem own interest. If di war for Ukraine long too much, e fit spoil di trade routes for di region, affect energy supply, and make di economy dey shake.
Plus, if di war turn to direct fight between Russia and NATO, Türkiye go dey for wahala because dem go dey middle of di matter. By keeping di door open for both Moscow and Kiev, Ankara dey make sure say dem go still get power to talk for future security matter.
Di importance of Türkiye role show well well for di recent European security summit wey dem do for London. Unlike di usual EU powers wey dey follow Washington way, Türkiye presence show say dem dey different as dem dey act like bridge between Western security and di bigger Eurasian interest.
Even though some European leaders still dey drag leg for Türkiye EU membership, others like Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk don meet President Erdogan on March 12 to talk about regional stability.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte sef don dey push EU to better di relationship with Türkiye, as e dey talk say dem need to strengthen di security and defense system because US policy dey change anyhow.
Türkiye NATO dynamics
Türkiye still dey well grounded for NATO security system. Di way US policy dey change—especially as government dey change—don make European leaders dey rethink how dem dey depend on US. Few days ago, di way US President Donald Trump dey talk anyhow about NATO commitment don make people dey doubt di way Washington dey serious, and e don make Europe dey think say dem need to get dem own security system.
For dis kind situation, Türkiye strong military power dey make dem important as security partner. At di same time, Ankara don dey do di one wey concern dem own defense policy, dey invest for dem own military technology and dey expand di way dem dey influence di matter for key conflict zones.
Di drone wey dem dey produce don help Ukraine defense well well, and di way dem dey expand dem naval power dey show say dem no want lose control for di Black Sea security.
Di road ahead
Now wey US don come back for di matter and ceasefire dey for table, Türkiye go need decide how dem go take play dem role for di next phase of di peace talk.
If Russia gree to di proposal, Ankara fit act as guarantor, to make sure say dem follow di agreement and still dey negotiate other ways to build trust. But if Moscow no gree, Türkiye go face serious test as dem go dey under pressure from NATO allies and di economic relationship wey dem get with Russia.
Apart from di ceasefire, Ankara dey look di long-term benefit. Dem fit use di effort wey dem put for di peace talk to push for EU membership talk again, ask for free visa travel for Turkish people, and try upgrade di customs agreement wey dem get with EU.
As dem dey shape di security for Europe, dem fit still push make NATO recognize dem more for di strategic framework wey dem dey use.
Whether di ceasefire go hold or e no go hold, di way Ankara dey play dem diplomatic card don make sure say dem dey for di center of di talk wey go shape di way di world go be after di war. Di way dem dey balance di relationship with NATO allies and Russia dey show say dem go still dey important for global diplomacy.
