As di ceasefire wey US President Donald Trump arrange dey hold for di second day, di damage wey di 12-day war between Israel and Iran cause don dey clear. From di infrastructure wey don scatter to di economy wey don suffer, both sides dey count di cost of di fight wey fit still start again.
Like di wars wey don happen for Middle East before, like di Arab-Israeli War for 1967 or di Yom Kippur War for 1973, di fight wey start for June 13 get symbolic meaning. Di war last 12 days, and di number 12 get cultural meaning for both sides: Israel dey see demsef as di nation of twelve tribes, while Iran dey follow di Twelver Shia tradition.
Even though ceasefire dey, American intelligence dey talk say di war fit start again. E no follow wetin President Trump talk say dem don “completely destroy” Iran nuclear power, as Iran uranium stockpile still dey intact.
Di 12-day fight leave big wahala for Iran and Israel, e affect supply chain for di region, and e shake di global energy and trade markets. As di ceasefire dey hold, di full cost of di war still dey show small small.
Iran wahala
“Di 12-day war between Iran and Israel for June cause plenty economic damage for di region, but di wahala no reach everybody di same way,” na wetin Andreas Krieg, wey be associate professor for King’s College London and director of MENA Analytica, talk.
Iran, wey don dey under Western sanctions for decades, carry di bigger wahala. For interview with TRT World, Krieg, wey be defence analyst, estimate say di total loss, both direct and indirect, dey between $24–$35 billion, wey be like 6.3 – 9.2% of Iran GDP wey dem estimate to be $380 billion.
US and Israeli attack scatter Iran nuclear infrastructure and e make Tehran oil export drop well well. Di damage wey happen to energy installations and military infrastructure fit make Iran recovery after di war slow wella. “Di war don add to di fiscal and social wahala wey Iran dey face, and e go affect di country stability,” na wetin Aimen Jamil, wey dey study Iran matter from Islamabad, talk.
US and Israel wahala
Israel spend about $5 billion for di first week of di attack on Iran, and di daily cost of di war reach $725 million—$593 million for attack and $132 million for defence and mobilisation.
Di anti-missile systems alone dey cost Israel between $10 million and $200 million per day, according to The Wall Street Journal. If di fight continue for one full month, di cost fit pass $12 billion, na wetin di Aaron Institute for Economic Policy estimate.
Even though Israel get strong economy, dem no escape di wahala, according to Krieg. E estimate say di loss dey between $11.5 billion to $17.8 billion, wey be like 2.1–3.3% of di $540 billion GDP wey Israel get.
“Di money include military spending, di damage to infrastructure, and di cost of stopping over 400 Iranian missiles,” Krieg add. “But di real wahala dey for di disruption wey happen. Israel high-tech sector, wey dey responsible for 64% of exports and one-fifth of GDP, suffer as dem carry thousands of reservists comot from important work.”
Business close, flights stop, and labour shortage for agriculture and construction make di economic wahala worse. Di opportunity cost, like investment wey dem stop and big projects wey dem delay, fit get long-term effect,” Krieg talk.
Plenty people don dey comot from Israel. Di wahala don make di government dey face pressure, as “plenty dual citizens dey run comot” because of di missile attack wey dey reach important places like oil refineries and big cities, according to Krieg.
Israel Central Bureau of Statistics talk say more than 80,000 Israelis comot di country for 2024, di highest number since di country start for 1948. Almost half a million don comot since October 7, 2023. Over 10,000 Israelis run comot for di first week of di war, and more than 36,000 don file for compensation, according to di Israel Tax Authority.
Di government dey think of cutting spending, increasing tax, or borrowing more money, wey fit make di public debt pass 75% of GDP. Di Finance Ministry don ask for $857 million for defence and dem dey propose $200 million cut for health, education, and social services.
For one controversial move, Israel government don ban Jewish citizens from travelling, say na to slow di number of people wey dey comot. Experts dey see am as sign say Israel dey feel insecure and di plenty war wey dem dey fight don spoil di country name. Di civilian death for Gaza, Lebanon, and now Iran don make plenty people for di world dey vex for Netanyahu government, and some dey accuse dem of genocide.
“Investor confidence and support from di diaspora dey reduce,” Krieg talk. “People dey feel say di government no fit protect dem again under di kind leader wey dey take plenty risk,” e add.
Even though Israel “carry big cost” because of di multi-front military operation and di damage wey Iranian attack cause, di country “strong economy and di money wey dem don save help dem avoid quick wahala,” Jamil tell TRT World.
Compared to Iran and Israel, Trump Operation Midnight Hammer cost US only $1 to $2 billion, wey no reach anything for America $28 trillion economy, according to Krieg.
US use 125 aircraft and fire plenty bunker-busting bombs and Tomahawk missiles for important Iranian nuclear sites like Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. “Even though di money wey US spend no too much, di wahala fit increase if dem involve more. Di instability for di region, di wahala for global oil market, and di way people dey see US diplomacy fit make di US position for Middle East hard,” Krieg talk.
Global trade wahala
Di 12-day war affect world trade and energy market because people dey fear say di fight go escalate and Iran fit block di Strait of Hormuz, wey dey carry one-quarter of di world oil export. Because of dis fear, di insurance price for tankers double for some cases and di cost of shipping rise, as Brent crude oil price go up by 15–20% before e calm down when di fear reduce, Krieg talk.
“Apart from oil, di general trade sef suffer. Big shipping companies begin change di route wey dem dey use, hire extra ships, and delay operations wey dey go Gulf. All dis wahala make cost go up and delivery time long, especially for countries like India, China, and Europe wey dey depend on Gulf oil export,” Krieg add.
Other sectors like agriculture and paper production sef feel di wahala, as di delay for shipping cause hidden cost. “Di war show how di global trade dey sensitive to fight for Gulf and how important Hormuz dey as trade route,” Krieg talk.
Jamil still talk about di effect for air travel. Plenty flights cancel and di new route wey dem dey use make airline cost go up, but she talk say di effect no too big for di global level and e go last only small time.
