Edibe Betul YucerFor years, Europe was closely aligned with its transatlantic partner, the US, a historical bond shaped by post-World War II realities and common goals.
But the close friendship is now under severe strain, and last month’s Munich Security Conference made this change harder to ignore.
US Vice President JD Vance used the global stage not to affirm transatlantic unity but to deride European leaders as “commissars” and accuse them of suppressing “freedom of speech” and cozying up to leftist ideologies.
Days later, Vance met with Germany’s far-right AfD leadership, further unsettling EU officials already anxious over the second Trump term.
The shocking scene reflected a change that’s been brewing for months. From trade tensions and defence cuts to increasingly unilateral US diplomacy, Europe’s reliance on Washington, once the defence shield of its global security and economic strategy, now looks like a liability.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been among the most vocal in urging Europe to rethink its transatlantic dependency.
"My intention is to go and convince European states that have become accustomed to buying American," he said last week in an interview with several French media, calling for other European countries that are currently "buying American", to shift to local options and reduce their overreliance on American defence by buying “Rafale” instead of “F-35”.
For the first time in decades, EU officials are facing a tragic reality with Trump’s second term.
Brussels is starting to question whether its longtime ally remains a dependable shield or if it has become just another actor in a great power competition.
German political leadership express outrage as US VP JD Vance likens Europe's democracy to authoritarian rule, with Defence Minister Boris Pistorius calling the remarks "unacceptable".
Is Uncle Sam abandoning Europe?
Trump’s recent threats to abandon NATO and sideline long-standing security commitments have pushed Brussels to rethink the foundations of its alliance with Washington.
Since President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law in August 2022, European leaders have been sounding the alarm. EU officials have repeatedly raised concerns that the act gives US firms an unfair edge, risking an exodus of European clean-tech investment across the Atlantic.
Macron publicly criticised the law during a visit to Washington, warning that it could "fragment the West". By early 2023, the European Commission launched its own response with the Green Deal Industrial Plan, aiming to boost domestic green manufacturing to compete with the U.S. subsidies.
Complaints over unfair competition have continued to surface as Trump doubles down on domestic industrial policy. Brussels’ efforts to secure carve-outs through the EU-US Trade and Technology Council have offered limited reassurance, reinforcing calls to strengthen Europe’s own strategic manufacturing base.
“The idea of the US abandoning western Europe was unimaginable even a decade ago, because its role there also secures broader American influence in the world,” says Phillip Ayoub, a professor of international relations at University College London.
Trump’s most recent clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Oval Office has only deepened these frustrations. What was intended to be a formal meeting to finalise a rare earth minerals deal descended into an open shouting match, as Trump and Vance berated Zelenskyy over his resistance to negotiating with Russia.
“You don’t have the cards right now,” Trump told him, before accusing the Ukrainian leader of “gambling with World War III.”
The Ukrainian delegation, stunned by the exchange, left the White House without a signed agreement, as planned lunch plates sat untouched in the hallway.
“These actions, threatening Canada, threatening Denmark, will have consequences for us,” said retired US General Ben Hodges, who commanded US forces in Europe from 2014 to 2018.
A window opens East?
Amid this turmoil, another player is quietly moving in to fill the vacuum left by the US – a rival rising not with threats but with trade deals, green tech, and patient diplomacy.
Earlier this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with European Council President Kosta on a phone call, recalling that this year marks the 50th anniversary of China-EU diplomatic relations. Xi called it an “important milestone that serves as both a point of continuity and a new starting point.
The Chinese president said the two sides should expand mutual openness, consolidate existing cooperation mechanisms, and foster new growth points in their cooperation.
Costa told Xi that the EU was “willing to work with China to…open up a brighter future for EU-China relations.”
Foreign Minister of China Wang Yi also said that China remains confident in Europe and believes that it can be a trustworthy partner at a press conference in early March on the sidelines of the third session of the 14th National People's Congress.
He stated in the half-century-long relationship with the EU, the most valuable asset is “mutual respect”, the most powerful impetus is “mutual benefit”, the greatest unifying consensus is “multilateralism”, and the most accurate characterisation is “partnership”.
In the past five decades, China-EU trade has expanded from $2.4 billion to $780 billion. Investments have increased from almost zero to close to $260 billion. The China-Europe Railway Express has run more than 100,000 cargo trips and become a golden passage connecting Asia and Europe, he added.
“Fifty years on, China and the EU jointly account for over one-third of the global economy, and cooperation between the two holds greater strategic value and global influence.”
Beijing-based international politics commentator Jianlu Bi believes this moment presents both a risk and an opportunity for the EU. The tensions with Washington, he said, “introduce complexities into the transatlantic relationship, which in turn influences the EU's strategic calculations regarding China.”
“The EU's current strategy emphasises ‘de-risking’ rather than decoupling from China,” Bi tells TRT World. “This involves diversifying supply chains, reducing dependencies, and addressing unfair trade practices.”
In other words, this isn’t about walking away from the US but rather about preparing for a future in which Washington may no longer be calling the shots.
And China, Bi suggests, is ready to meet it where it is. “Frictions with the US may reinforce the EU's push for ‘strategic autonomy,’ meaning a greater capacity to act independently in foreign policy and economic matters,” he adds.
