For person wey dey go market, e don be like say price wey dey go up na normal tin for daily life. But for people wey like sweet tin, one product wey dey climb price pass others na chocolate.

Cocoa price don more than quadruple between 2022 and 2025, as e rise reach historic level of almost $11,000 per metric ton — dis kain spike never happen before for commodity wey dey important for di $120 billion global chocolate industry.

Di increase start after bad harvest for West Africa push price reach about $4,200 per ton by late 2023, level wey dem never see steady steady since di 1970s.

New report dey predict say di negative tins wey dey cause cocoa wahala, like climate wahala and biodiversity loss, go still dey worse pass 2030.

Europe chocolate supply chain dey particularly exposed, di researchers talk. Dis na because almost all di EU cocoa wey dem dey import dey come from West Africa, especially Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria — countries wey dem rank low for climate resilience.

For 2023 alone, 96.5 percent of EU cocoa come from countries wey dem rank as 'low-medium' for climate preparedness.

In short, Europe sweet tooth dey depend on some of di most fragile ecological areas for di world.

“Dis no be just abstract threat,” lead author Camilla Hyslop talk. “Di tins dey already happen and e dey affect business, jobs, and di availability plus price of food for consumers. And e dey get worse.”

Many climate scientists dey blame di recent weather wahala on El Nino, wey be phenomenon wey dey cause unusual warm sea surface temperature for di central and eastern tropical Pacific.

For 2023, some parts of West Africa experience heavy rainfall wey pass twice di 30-year seasonal average for some areas.

But 2024 come bring hot heat and serious drought. Scientists for World Weather Attribution talk say di humid heat wave wey happen around Easter increase by 4°C and e dey ten times more likely because of human-induced climate change.

El Nino na one of di main reasons.

“For di past three years, we get La Nina conditions wey dey suck heat from di atmosphere and store am under di ocean surface, wey dey hide di effect of greenhouse gas,” Michael McPhaden, professor of oceanography for University of Washington, talk.

“But with di current El Nino, di heat don come back from di ocean to spread around di world and warm di planet.”

Di connection between climate change and di way El Nino dey strong still dey under research. But new studies dey show say global warming fit dey cause stronger El Nino events.

“Chocolate na just one of di many foods wey climate change dey make expensive because of di extreme weather wey dey affect crops,” Amber Sawyer, analyst for Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), talk.

Other commodities like coffee, soy, rice, wheat, and maize dey also come from countries wey dey vulnerable to environmental wahala.

“Until we fit reduce emissions reach net-zero, di extreme weather go still dey worse,” she add.

But other tins dey wey dey affect cocoa market price.

By di end of 2024, swollen shoot virus don infect about 20% of cocoa trees for Ivory Coast and 81% of trees for one major cocoa-producing area for Ghana, according to Tropical Research Services and ICCO.

Black pod disease na another big wahala for cocoa. Di disease dey show as dark mark for di pods, wey go later make dem rot and reduce di plant yield.

E fit cause yield loss of 20-30% every year and up to 90% for serious cases, with tree loss fit reach 10% per year.

For 2024, di price of cocoa ingredient almost double because of bad weather and disease for top cocoa producers like Ghana and Ivory Coast.

Even with di recent rain for West Africa, over one-third of land for Ghana and Ivory Coast still dey under drought, African Flood and Drought Monitor talk.

At di same time, di worry about cocoa quality for Ivory Coast dey make price go up.

“70% of di world cocoa dey come from West African countries, and 60% of dat na from Ivory Coast and Ghana,” futures and commodities expert Zafer Ergezen talk.

Ergezen add say di cocoa quality wey dey drop, especially for Ivory Coast, don make big European chocolate companies dey worry and reject some shipments, wey dey make price go higher.