Daga Murat Sofuoglu

Shugaba Donald Trump ya bayyana hare-haren Amurka kan cibiyoyin nukiliyar Iran a matsayin “nasara mai ban mamaki ta soja”, amma masana tsaro sun ce tsarin makamashin nukiliyar Tehran bai lalace sosai ba.

Jiragen yaki na Amurka ƙirar B52 masu layar zana sun jefa bama-baman da ke lalata gine-gine na ƙarƙashin ƙasa, sannan aka harba makamai masu linzami na Tomahawk kan wurare uku na nukiliyar Iran, wanda ya zama ɗaya daga cikin manyan matakan da suka ƙara tsananta rikicin Isra’ila da Iran, wanda zai iya jefa Gabas ta Tsakiya cikin wani yaƙi mai faɗi.

Harin da Trump ya kai kan Iran ya saɓa da alƙawarin da ya daɗe yana yi na fitar da Amurka daga rikice-rikicen Gabas ta Tsakiya, kuma ya saɓa da wa’adin makonni biyu da ya bai wa Tehran don ta sake duba shirin nukiliyarta.

Bayan hare-haren, Trump ya koma kan salon maganganunsa na yau da kullum, yana iƙirarin cewa damar nukiliyar Iran ta “lalace gaba daya.”

Wuraren nukiliyar uku da Amurka ta kai hari sun haɗa da Natanz, cibiyar da ke da girma wajen tace uranium a Iran, da cibiyar Isfahan, wani ɗakin bincike da ke ɗauke da kaɗan daga cikin kayan nukiliya, kamar yadda Mohammed Eslami, farfesa a fannin dangantakar kasa da kasa a Jami’ar Minho, ya bayyana.

Muhimmiyar cibiyar nukiliyar Iran da aka kai hari ita ce Fordow, wata cibiyar ƙarƙashin ƙasa da aka binne a cikin tsaunuka kusa da birnin Qom, wuri mai tsarki da cibiyar malaman addinin Iran suka kafa.

An kai hari kan Fordow da bama-baman GBU 57, waɗanda Amurka ce kaɗai ke da su.

Me aka lalata?

Duk da iƙirarin Trump, masana sun nuna shakku ko Amurka ta kai ga lalata ainihin tsarin nukiliyar Iran.

“Karfin huda ramin na GBU 57 bai wuce mita 60 ba, don haka za a iya cewa na’urorin na Fordow ba su lalace ba,” in ji Eslami ga TRT World, yana nuni da injinan da ake amfani da su wajen tace uranium zuwa matakai daban-daban.

Iran ta kuma bayyana jim kadan bayan harin Amurka cewa ta samu damar kwashe kayan nukiliyarta daga wuraren uku kafin bama-baman su faɗa can.

Wani ɗan jarida daga Tehran, wanda ya nemi a sakaya sunansa, ya shaida wa TRT World cewa suna da “bidiyo da ke nuna Iran tana kwashe kayan nukiliya daga Fordow kwanaki biyu da suka gabata.”

Sai dai ta amince cewa Natanz da cibiyar gwaje-gwaje ta Khondab da ke Arak sun daina aiki, yayin da cibiyar nukiliyar Bushehr ke ci gaba da aiki. Gaba daya, ba za a ce ba daidai ba idan aka ce Iran ta rasa wani muhimmin bangare na damar nukiliyarta, ta kara da cewa.

Wani tsohon jakadan Iran da ya taba shiga tattaunawar nukiliya da kasashen Yamma ya kalli batun daga wata fuska daban.

“Fasaha da ilimin tace uranium ba za a iya lalata su da hare-hare ba,” in ji tsohon jakadan ga TRT World, yana magana a kan sharaɗin sakaya sunansa.

Masana daga ƙasashen Yamma sun kuma jaddada cewa ilimin nukiliyar Iran ba zai taɓa gushewa ba.

“Harin kan Fordow — da duk abin da zai biyo baya — ba zai jinkirta kokarin tace uranium na Iran ba,” in ji James M. Acton, daraktan shirin manufofin nukiliya a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Doreen Horschig daga Cibiyar Nazarin Dabarun Kasa da Kasa ta kuma bayyana cewa ko da hare-haren sojan Amurka sun lalata muhimman cibiyoyin Iran, “ilimin da ke tattare da tace uranium, fasahar reactor, da tsarin samar da makamashi don ci gaba da fission nukiliya zai ci gaba da kasancewa.”

Yousry Abushady, tsohon babban mai bincike na Hukumar Kula da Makamashin Nukiliya ta Duniya (IAEA) a Vienna, ya yi watsi da hare-haren Amurka kan cibiyoyin nukiliyar Iran a matsayin “wata dabara ta kafafen watsa labarai” a wata hira da aka yi kwanan nan.

Yayin da Iran ta yi alkawarin ɗaukar matakin doka kan Amurka, masana sun kuma nuna dokar Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya, wadda ta haramta duk wani harin soja kan shirye-shiryen nukiliya na lumana.

IAEA ta bayyana a fili cewa babu wata shaida da ke nuna cewa shirin nukiliyar Iran na nufin gina bam ɗin nukiliya.

Tsohon jakadan Iran, wanda ya shiga tsarin amincewa da kudurin IAEA a shekarar 1990, ya ce hare-haren Amurka sun saba wa “dokar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, tsarin IAEA da kuma dokar kasa da kasa.”

Kwamitin Tsaro na MDD dole ya “yi aiki nan take kuma ƙasashe mambobi su taimaka wa kasar da aka kai wa hari,” wato Iran, kamar yadda ya ƙara da cewa.

Mohamed ElBaradei, tsohon babban daraktan IAEA, ya kuma nuna cewa hare-haren kan Iran sun fito ne daga ƙasashe biyu masu makaman nukiliya, wato Amurka da Isra’ila. Isra’ila ba ta amince da matsayin nukiliyarta ba kuma ba ta rattaɓa hannu kan yarjejeniyar hana yaɗuwar makaman nukiliya (NPT) ba.

Yaya Iran za ta mayar da martani?

Jim kadan bayan hare-haren Amurka, Tehran ta yi alƙawarin ramuwar gayya da karfi kuma ta yi alkawarin “rubuta karshen labarin.”

Esmaili, wani malami, ya yi imanin cewa Iran za ta mayar da martani “cikin kashi 100 cikin 100” kan hare-haren Amurka a fannoni daban-daban.

A matakin soja, Tehran za ta “kai hari” kan sansanonin Amurka da sojojin ruwa a yankin yayin da a fannin siyasa za ta toshe Mashigin Hormuz don dakatar da zirga-zirgar man fetur, in ji shi. Tehran kuma za ta iya janyewa daga NPT ta fara gina bam din nukiliya, ya kara da cewa.

Ya kuma gargadi cewa martanin soja daga Iran “zai faru nan ba da jimawa ba.” Amma har zuwa wane mataki? “Ba mu sani ba,” in ji shi, yana mai nuna cewa “yawan martanin ya fi muhimmanci fiye da martanin kansa.”

Yayin da wasu masana ke cewa Iran ba za ta iya jure wannan matsin lamba daga Amurka da Isra’ila ba, Esmaili ya ce “Ba batun abin da Iran za ta iya yi ba ne, batun abin da Iran za ta yi ne.”

Ya jaddada cewa “Ba za a taba ganin Iraniyawa sun mika wuya ba, aƙalla ba yanzu ba!”

Ya kuma nuna cewa Khamenei ba zai mika wuya ba, kuma ko da an kashe shi, shugaban da zai biyo baya na iya zama mai tsattsauran ra’ayi fiye da shi.

“Khamenei ya fi sassauci, matsakaici kuma mai buɗaɗɗiyar zuciya idan aka kwatanta da sauran malaman juyin juya hali. Wannan yana sa labarin ya zama mai matukar rikitarwa.”