Tarihin rikice-rikicen Sudan ta Kudu yana ci gaba da shafar halin da ake ciki a yanzu, inda ake tababar tabbacin da Shugaba Salva Kiir ya bayar ga 'yan ƙasa cewa ba zai bari ƙasar ta sake fadawa cikin yaƙi ba.

“Ya ku ‘yan ƙasata, kuna bin abubuwan da ke faruwa a Jihar Upper Nile, Gundumar Nasir… Ina roƙonku ku kwantar da hankulanku,” in ji Kiir a jawabin da ya yi wa ƙasa a ranar 7 ga watan Maris.

“Na faɗa sau da dama cewa ƙasarmu ba za ta koma yaƙi ba. Ka da wani ya ɗauki doka a hannunsa.”

Kiran shugaban na haɗin kai ya zo ne a daidai lokacin da rashin yarda ke ƙaruwa tsakaninsa da mataimakinsa na farko, Dr Riek Machar.

Yayin da rarrabuwar kawuna ta siyasa da aƙida ke barazanar cinye Sudan ta Kudu, wannan yanayin yana tunatar da rikicin 2013–2018, lokacin da rashin jituwa tsakanin shugabannin biyu ta ƙara tsananta rikicin ƙabilanci kuma ta jefa ƙasar cikin rikici.

An kama wasu fitattun mutane kwanan nan, ciki har da wani mataimakin babban hafsan soji da ministoci biyu da ke goyon bayan Machar, wanda hakan ya ƙara fito da rashin jituwar fili.

Mai magana da yawun gwamnati, Michael Makuei, ya zargi waɗannan jami'ai da “take doka.”

A wani taron gaggawa na IGAD da aka gudanar a ranar 12 ga Maris, shugabannin ƙungiyar sun buƙaci a saki waɗanda aka kama nan take “sai dai idan akwai hujjojin da za su tabbatar da yin shari'a cikin gaskiya da bin doka.”

IGAD ta nuna damuwa kan “rashin yarda da amincewa da ke ƙaruwa tsakanin ɓangarorin da suka rattaba hannu kan yarjejeniyar gwamnatin riƙon ƙwarya.”

Gwamnatin riƙon ƙwarya ta yanzu tana gudanar da Sudan ta Kudu bisa yarjejeniyar RTGoNU da aka sanya hannu a 2018.

Wannan yarjejeniya ta kawo gwamnatin haɗin kai tsakanin Shugaba Kiir da Machar a 2020, bayan da IGAD ta shiga tsakani don kawo ƙarshen yaƙin.

Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta ƙiyasta cewa fiye da mutum 400,000 sun mutu, yayin da miliyoyi suka rasa matsugunansu a lokacin yaƙin basasar Sudan ta Kudu.

Bayan asarar rayuka, ci gaban ƙasa ma ya samu babbar tawaya. “Ci gaba ba zai yiwu ba a ƙarƙashin irin wannan yanayin,” in ji Alain Nyamitwe, tsohon wakilin Burundi a Tarayyar Afirka.

Rahoton Bankin Duniya ya nuna cewa tattalin arzikin Sudan ta Kudu ya ragu tsawon shekaru biyar a jere, kuma ana hasashen zai ƙara raguwa da kashi 30% a 2024-25.

Kusan kashi 80% na al'ummar Sudan ta Kudu suna fama da matsananciyar hauhawar farashi da rashin abinci. Masana sun danganta wannan matsala da rashin ingantaccen shugabanci da kuma gazawar sarrafa kuɗaɗen man fetur.

Duk da haka, Bankin Duniya yana ganin akwai fata. “Sudan ta Kudu na iya amfani da damar da ke cikin ɓangaren masu zaman kansu don farfaɗo da tattalin arziki,” in ji Charles Undeland, manajan ƙasa na Bankin Duniya.

Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta nuna cewa kusan mutum miliyan 9.3 na Sudan ta Kudu suna buƙatar tallafin jinƙai. Yawancin waɗannan mutane sun rasa matsugunansu sakamakon rikice-rikicen cikin gida da sauyin yanayi.

Masana sun jaddada cewa mutanen Sudan ta Kudu suna buƙatar damar gudanar da zaɓe don zaɓar shugabanninsu, wanda zai iya rage rashin jituwar da ke tasowa daga rashin tsarin mulki mai kyau.

A watan Satumban 2024, gwamnatin riƙon ƙwarya ta tsawaita wa'adinta har zuwa Fabrairun 2027, tare da ɗage jadawalin zaɓe zuwa Disamban 2026 maimakon Disamban 2024 da aka tsara tun farko.

“Wannan ci gaban abin takaici ne duba da gajiyawar da mutanen Sudan ta Kudu ke ji game da rashin aiki daga shugabanninsu wajen aiwatar da yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya,” in ji Nicholas Haysom, shugaban UNMISS.

Masana sun ce dole ne a samu mafita mai ɗorewa ta hanyar tattaunawa, domin ya zama wajibi a kawo ƙarshen mulkin riƙon ƙwarya da wurwuri.